A moneyline bet asks one question: who wins? There is no point spread to cover. If your team wins the game, by one point or by thirty, your bet wins.
The catch is in the price. Picking a heavy favorite costs a lot to win a little, and backing an underdog pays more because it loses more often. Reading those prices is the whole skill.
Reading moneyline odds
Moneylines in the US use American odds, built around $100. A minus sign marks the favorite and tells you how much you must risk to win $100. A plus sign marks the underdog and tells you how much a $100 bet wins.
- Favorite at -150: risk $150 to win $100. A $10 bet wins $6.67 and returns $16.67.
- Underdog at +130: a $100 bet wins $130. A $10 bet wins $13 and returns $23.
- Even money, +100: risk $100 to win $100.
The return always includes your stake back. That is why a $10 winner at +130 shows $23 on the slip: $13 of profit plus your $10.
| Side | Price | $10 wins | $10 returns | Implied chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favorite | -150 | $6.67 | $16.67 | 60.0% |
| Underdog | +130 | $13.00 | $23.00 | 43.5% |
What the price says about the chance
Every price has a win chance built into it, called the implied probability. For a minus price, divide the number by itself plus 100: 150 / 250 = 60%. For a plus price, divide 100 by the number plus 100: 100 / 230 = 43.5%.
Add the two sides of the game above and you get 103.5%, not 100%. The extra 3.5% is the book's margin, often called the vig or juice. It is built into both prices, so each side's implied chance runs a little above its fair chance, and a bet has to win as often as its price implies just to break even.
- Favorite at -150
- 60.0%
- Underdog at +130
- 43.5%
- Both sides together
- 103.5%
implied chance to win
implied chance to win
the 3.5% over 100 is the book's margin
This is the useful habit: turn the price into a percentage and ask whether you think the team wins more often than that. A -400 favorite needs to win 80% of the time to be worth backing at that price. If you think it wins three games in four, the price is too short, however sure the result feels.
What happens on a tie
In a two-way moneyline (one team or the other) a game that ends level is graded as no action and your stake comes back. That is how books treat an NFL game still tied after overtime, and overtime counts toward the result. Hockey moneylines usually include overtime and the shootout, so the game always has a winner.
Soccer is different. Draws are common, so the main soccer moneyline is three-way: home win, draw or away win. Back a team on a three-way line and a draw loses the bet. It is settled on 90 minutes plus stoppage time, so extra time and penalties do not count. Some books also offer two-way soccer markets such as draw no bet, where a draw refunds your stake, so check which market you are on before you bet.
Quick payout math
- Plus prices: profit equals the stake times the price divided by 100. $20 at +240 wins $48.
- Minus prices: profit equals the stake times 100 divided by the price. $20 at -175 wins $11.43.
- Total return: add your stake back. $20 at +240 returns $68, and $20 at -175 returns $31.43.
Run the numbers before the bet, not after. A favorite at -175 pays $11.43 on a $20 stake, which sounds fine until you see the price needs a 63.6% win rate just to break even.
Moneyline or point spread?
The point spread asks a different question: will a team win by more than a set number, or lose by less? Spreads and totals are usually priced near -110 on both sides, so the price barely moves and the points do the work. On the moneyline the price does all the work.
- Big favorites: you risk a lot to win a little. -400 means risking $40 to win $10.
- Underdogs you think can win outright: the moneyline pays more than taking the points, because you need the upset, not a close loss.
- Pick'em games: when two teams are rated level, both moneylines can sit at -110, the same price as a spread.
Moneylines are also a common building block of a parlay, and the same math powers every other price on the board: how to read betting odds covers the decimal and fractional versions of these numbers.